Introduction
GovCon bid no-bid is where win rate gets made… or quietly destroyed.
In Post 1, I said the quiet part out loud: most teams don’t lose because of writing — they lose because they chased the wrong pursuit.
This post is the fix: a simple 3-gate pursuit filter you can run fast, defend to leadership, and repeat across your pipeline. If you want a better GovCon bid no-bid culture, start here.
Post 2: The 3-Gate Pursuit Filter
Every pursuit gets evaluated through three gates:
- Gate 1 — Fit: client + scope + capability
- Gate 2 — Access: intel + relationships + incumbent reality
- Gate 3 — Math: margin + capacity + risk
If you can’t clearly pass all three, your GovCon bid no-bid decision is basically hope wearing a spreadsheet.
Gate 1: FIT (Client + Scope + Capability)
Fit sounds obvious… until a shiny forecast shows up and everyone starts rationalizing.
- Client fit: Have you delivered for this agency (or a true look-alike) before?
- Scope fit: Can you cover 80–90% of the scope with your current team + real partners?
- Capability fit: Past performance, resumes, tools, certifications — are they real and relevant?
- Contract fit: Vehicle, NAICS, security, location, subcontracting rules — any hidden cliffs?
Simple test: Could delivery leadership confidently staff this within 30 days if you won? If not, that’s a Fit fail.
Tip: I keep “Fit assets” organized (past performance + resumes + agency proof) as part of my notes here: https://nerditforward.com/about-me
Gate 2: ACCESS (Intel + Relationships + Incumbent Reality)
Access isn’t “we know someone.” Access means you can explain what the buyer cares about, what the incumbent is doing, and where your wedge lives.
- Intel: You understand the mission pain behind the SOW (not just the posted language).
- Relationships: You have credible contact depth in or near the buying org.
- Incumbent reality: You can name the incumbent, likely subs, and why they’re hard to unseat.
- Your wedge: A real differentiator that evaluators will score, not “marketing glitter.”
- Teaming: Prime/sub roles decided early, with committed partners (not theoretical names).
Access warning sign: If your capture plan begins after RFP drop, you’re late — and the incumbent is early.
Reference: If you want the underlying “how evaluation works” mechanics, skim FAR Part 15. It’ll make your Access conversations sharper.
Gate 3: MATH (Margin + Capacity + Risk)
This is where good feelings meet reality. “We can do it” is not the same as “we can win it and deliver it without bleeding.”
- Margin: Can you price competitively and protect margin given labor mix, indirects, and incumbent advantage?
- Capacity: Do you have proposal bandwidth now and delivery bandwidth later — without breaking other work?
- Risk: Transition, staffing, schedule, data rights, security, penalties — what could blow up the plan?
Math rule I like: If your win path depends on “cutting price and praying,” it’s a no-bid wearing a costume.
Quick Scorecard (15 minutes, no drama)
- Score each gate 0–5 (Fit / Access / Math).
- No gate below 3 (below 3 = default no-bid).
- Total ? 12 to move forward confidently.
The goal isn’t to kill pipeline. The goal is to protect the team’s time for pursuits you can actually win.
Wrap-Up
Cleaner decisions create cleaner wins. If your GovCon bid no-bid process is messy, start with three gates: Fit, Access, Math.
Question: Which gate do you skip most often?
Next in the series: Post 3 — Proof: what evaluators actually reward (and what “proof” is not). Read Post 3
If you want a second set of eyes on a pursuit before you commit the proposal team, take a look at https://nerditforward.com/growth-services.